Equity Curve & Balance Evolution
Account Growth (%) — Jul 2025 — May 2026
Balance Return
Equity Return
Drawdown (right axis)
V4FX Medium vs MSCI World — Comparative Analysis
Cumulative Return Comparison (%)
V4FX Medium
MSCI World
Correlation & Decorrelation Metrics
Correlation Coefficient (ρ)
-0.0868
⚡ Near-Zero Correlation
Beta (β) -0.1691
R² (R-Squared) 0.0075
Jensen's Alpha +43.31%
Tracking Error 28.61%
Up Capture -3.77%
Down Capture -64.96%
Sigma (σ) 21.63%
Net Exp. (Δ) N/A
Performance Metrics — Deep Dive
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Equity Sharpe Ratio 1.30
Calmar Ratio 3.11
Profit Factor 1.98
CAGR 46.28%
Total Return +37.07%

Equity Sharpe of 1.30 indicates excellent risk-adjusted returns on equity basis. Calmar of 3.11 means the strategy earns nearly 3× its worst drawdown annually.

Risk & Drawdown
Max Drawdown -14.90%
Gross Profit +88.94%
Gross Loss -44.89%
Net Profit +44.06%
Avg Win / Trade +0.056%
Avg Loss / Trade -0.106%
Trade Statistics
Win Rate
78.96%
1,584 wins / 422 losses
Wins
79.0%
Losses
21.0%
Monthly Returns Heatmap
Monthly Performance Distribution (%)
>2%
1–2%
0–1%
<0%
Daily Returns Analysis
Daily Returns Distribution (%)
Cumulative Return (%)
Decorrelation Analysis — V4FX Medium vs MSCI World
Key Findings on Strategy Independence
ρ Correlation
-0.0868
Very Low Correlation
β Beta
-0.1691
Low Sensitivity
0.01
Fully Independent
Jensen's α
+43.31%
Massive Alpha

💡 Interpretation

The correlation coefficient (ρ) of -0.0868 indicates Very Low correlation between V4FX Medium and the MSCI World Index. A beta (β) of -0.1691 describes the strategy's sensitivity to market movements. With an R² of 0.75%, MSCI World explains virtually none of V4FX Medium's returns.

Generated positive alpha of 43.31% p.a. — after adjusting for market risk, the strategy shows a 43.31% excess return above the CAPM prediction. Down Capture of -64.96% is negative (strategy gains when MSCI falls), providing portfolio protection.

Metric Definitions

Quick reference for the decorrelation and risk metrics used throughout this report.

ρ (Pearson Correlation)
Linear correlation of V4FX Medium's daily returns vs MSCI World, range [-1, 1]. ρ = 0 means uncorrelated; ±1 means perfectly correlated / anti-correlated.
β (Beta)
Sensitivity: V4FX Medium daily return ≈ β × MSCI daily return. β near 0 means the strategy moves independently of MSCI; β = 1 means same magnitude.
R² (R-Squared)
Fraction of strategy return variance explained by MSCI World movements. 1 − R² is the "independent variance" (idiosyncratic return).
Up-Capture
Average percentage of MSCI's positive days that the strategy captures. Higher = strategy participates more in up-markets.
Down-Capture
Average percentage of MSCI's negative days that the strategy mirrors. Negative values = strategy gains when MSCI falls (a hedge property).
Tracking Error
Annualised standard deviation of (strategy_return − β × MSCI_return). Measures how far the strategy departs from a pure β-scaled MSCI exposure.
Jensen's α
Annualised excess return above the CAPM-predicted return for the strategy's β (risk-free rate assumed 0). Positive α = beating the benchmark on a risk-adjusted basis.
Sigma (σ)
Annualized return volatility. Population standard deviation of daily equity returns × √252, expressed as a percentage. A measure of how bumpy the equity curve is. Higher = wider day-to-day swings.
Net Exp. (Δ)
Average net directional exposure as % of equity, signed. For each candle, net notional = Σ (BUY positions) − Σ (SELL positions), in quote currency. Divided by equity, averaged across all candles. Positive = net-long bias; negative = net-short bias. Hover the cell for peak |Δ| (worst directional exposure) and avg gross book size (Σ |notionals|).
Note: Δ is currently not computable from the available position-history schema for these live accounts; the Section 2 tile shows "N/A" and this caveat will be removed once broker-side position-lifecycle data is wired into the pipeline.

Note on σ/Δ: these are not the options-pricing Greeks of the same names — options σ/Δ have no meaning for a spot/CFD forex strategy with no optionality. They are descriptive statistics of the equity curve and the open book. Notionals are summed naively across symbols in their quote currency; for a mostly USD-quoted book (EURUSD, GBPUSD, …) the number reads as USD exposure, for mixed-quote pairs it is a directional-bias indicator rather than a hedge-grade exposure number.

Complete Performance Summary
V4FX Medium — Strategy Metrics
MetricValue
Strategy NameV4FX Medium — MAM
Initial Capital100.00%
Final Balance144.06%
Total Return+37.07%
CAGR46.28%
Equity Sharpe Ratio1.30
Calmar Ratio3.11
Max Drawdown-14.90%
Profit Factor1.98
Win Rate78.96%
Total Trades2,006
Wins / Losses1,584 / 422
Avg Win / Trade+0.056%
Avg Loss / Trade-0.106%
Gross Profit+88.94%
Gross Loss-44.89%
Net Profit+44.06%
MSCI World Comparison Metrics
MetricValue
BenchmarkMSCI World Index
Overlap PeriodJul 21, 2025 — May 13, 2026
Overlap Days205
Correlation (ρ)-0.0868
Beta (β)-0.1691
R-Squared0.0075
Jensen's Alpha+43.31%
Tracking Error28.61%
Up Capture-3.77%
Down Capture-64.96%

🔍 Key Observations

V4FX Medium delivers returns that are essentially uncorrelated to global equities (ρ = -0.0868). Jensen's α of 43.31% p.a. indicates substantial excess return above the CAPM-predicted benchmark over the overlap window. Negative down capture (-64.96%) means the strategy tended to gain on days when MSCI World fell — a useful hedge property over the observed window.

Return vs Risk — Visual Comparison
V4FX Medium vs MSCI World — Overlap-Window Performance (%)
V4FX Return
+37.07%
MSCI World
+17.76%
V4FX Sharpe
1.30
MSCI Sharpe
1.66
V4FX MaxDD
-14.90%
MSCI MaxDD
-9.06%